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    企業公眾號

    武漢市盤龍明達建筑有限公司

    地址:武漢市黃陂區盤龍城經濟開發區巨龍大道147號1-5層

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    建筑業增速放緩四季度基建有望反彈

    分類:
    行業新聞
    作者:
    來源:
    中國經濟時報
    2018/12/08 09:55
    瀏覽量

    2018年以來,建筑施工行業整體延續增長態勢,其國民經濟支柱產業的地位穩固。但作為強周期行業,持續下行的固定資產投資增速給該行業的增長帶來壓力。兩大下游產業中房地產行業整體增速維持在較高水平,但銷售乏力給投資高增速的可持續性帶來壓力;基建投資增速下滑明顯。除此之外,鋼鐵、水泥等上游原材料價格維持高位,也同時擠壓著建筑企業利潤空間。

     

     

    今年前三季度,建筑業總產值增速依然延續增長態勢。根據國家統計局數據,今年前三季度,建筑業實現總產值152326.24億元,同比增長9.38%,延續了之前較快增長的態勢,但同比增速較上年下滑1.33個百分點。

     

    從建筑企業角度來看,新簽合同額及在手合同額保持增長,但增速承壓。2018年前三季度,全國建筑業新簽合同額同比增長7.46%至179288.69億元,增速同比下滑14.54個百分點;在手合同額同比增長14.10%至401382.19億元,增速同比下滑5.08個百分點。受到資金面及基建進度放緩等因素影響,新項目的開拓和存量項目的推進都有所放慢。

     

    值得關注的是,負增長區域有所擴大,蘇浙兩省建筑業總產值繼續領跑全國,但增速有所放緩。2018年上半年,建筑業產值在各省間的分布沒有明顯變化,江蘇和浙江的產值規模依然領跑全國,兩省共占全國建筑業總產值的24.8%。除浙江、江蘇兩省外,總產值超過4000億元的還有湖北、廣東、四川、山東、福建、河南和北京共7個地區,上述9省市完成的建筑業總產值占全國建筑業總產值的63.41%。

     

    2017年下半年以來,為了防止地方隱性債務以PPP的名義繼續野蠻增長,PPP相關政策出現了明顯的調整。聯合資信最近發布的建筑業研究報告指出,隨著合規項目開工率的不斷提高,以及社會資本的持續投入,PPP有望重新成為建筑行業需求增長的重要支持力量。

     

    從行業需求來看,建筑施工行業傳統意義上的三大下游需求分別是地產、基建和工建。地產包括房建、裝飾、園林等子行業,工建主要包括化學工程、鋼結構等專業工程,基建則涵蓋路橋、軌交、水利等板塊。自“一帶一路”倡議誕生以來,建筑企業“走出去”的腳步愈來愈快,海外需求成了傳統三大需求以外的第四大需求來源。

     

    數據顯示,2018年1-9月,地產投資維持較快增長,房地產開發到位資金持續改善,但銷售的乏力仍給投資高增速的可持續性帶來較大壓力。不過,在資金面不斷改善以及基礎設施“補短板”力度不斷加強的情況下,伴隨項目重啟、新項目開工,我國基礎設施建設投資在三季度觸底并有望在四季度有所反彈。此外,人民幣貶值利好國際工程板塊,中外合作的持續推進也可以給部分建筑企業提供一定增長空間。

     

    整體來看,雖然固定資產投資增速持續回落、房地產行業下行壓力加大,短期內上游原材料價格帶來的成本壓力也仍然較大,但西部基建“補短板”“鄉村振興戰略”等政策的出臺,配合積極的財政政策,給建筑業增長帶來空間。從中長期看,隨著“一帶一路”“穩投資”等利好政策的逐步落實以及PPP項目的規范化,基建作為政府刺激經濟增長的重要手段仍將發揮作用,建筑業下游需求量在中長期內仍將保持穩定。

     

     

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